How good are the Cavs?
We have no idea. And that's not necessarily a good thing.
The Cavs have been playing completely different basketball for the last 10 games (4 regular season, 6 playoff), and almost seem to be a completely different team than the early season lackadaisical mess that was 33-25 on March 2nd.
On April 12, the 46-32 Cavs started to roll. They won the last 4 games of the regular season to earn the second spot in a strangely seated bracket, in which it was an easier road for the 2 seed than the 1.
The Cavs kept rolling, straight through the depleted Washington Wizards, playing without Gilbert Arenas (everyone's favorite basketball whackjob) and Caron Butler, the resident bruiser. No one gave the supporting cast of the Wiz, starring Antawn Jamison, credit for being a professional basketball team. People didn't watch the Cavs quickly unravel the Wizards to take an early seat and wait for the New Jersey - Toronto series to end. New Jersey ended the Canadian postseason, and set up for a run at the Cavaliers.
And that's where we are now. Short, easy to read, but slow and even in comparison to the waves in the Western playoff race.
The story, however, is more interesting when you consider the basketball the Cavs have been playing to get here -- The most recent 10 game win streak and playoff run.
Why has the Cleveland point differential jumped from 3.8 to 8.2 from regular season to postseason?
The Cavs offense is just a little better than it was during the regular season measuring by point totals. Cleveland's field goal percentage is just 2/10 of a percent better. That's not significant. The offense has shown little improvement considering just the numbers.
The defense and rebounding, however, have drastically improved. The Cavs have been grabbing over 35% of the rebounds on the offensive side of the floor, better than their regular season average of 29.6%. They have been taking down over 79% of the rebounds on the defensive side of the floor, better than their regular season average of 75.6%. The Cavs are netting 49.33 rebounds per game, an improvement over the regular season of 43.5 per game. They have been grabbing 13.5 more boards than their opponents in the playoffs, and there's no reason to see them stop now against the Nets, who have a weak front line.
The Cavs defense has held their opponents to 89.17 points in the playoffs. Sasha Pavlovic has stepped up his previously questionable defense and held Vince Carter to a low field goal percentage.
Why is this boring basketball? Since when is playing spectacular defense something for sportscasters to lament? Why is everyone writing them off as impostors? The Cavs have the power and the defense to compete with anyone, and in the games, they'll prove why.
Some other numbers for you to consider:
4/4 - The Cavs home win record this season and postseason versus the Nets
12 - Points per game difference between the Cavs and their opponents in the last 10 games.
13.5 - Rebounds per game difference between the Cavs and their opponents in the playoffs.
2.5 - Shots that Cavs have made per game more than their opponents in the playoffs (which is a sizable difference).
28.7 - Percentage of the offense that Lebron scores in the playoffs. Points off of LeBron James assists are not counted.
The Cavs have some work to do to take game 3 from the wounded Nets. Game 3 will probably be the hardest to win. New Jersey is down in a hole and fighting for its life, while the Cavs have a little lead and confidence, maybe even a swagger, that can hurt them in the upcoming game. Vince Carter plays better at home than he does on the road. Jason Kidd is one of the best point guards in the league. The Nets are a veteran team ready to fight, and they're too good to be swept easily.
The Cavs need to keep pounding the glass. Now is no time to let up the rebounding advantage. The Nets don't have multiple threats in the paint to score easy baskets since VC decided to tiptoe his way through the series on the perimeter. The Cavaliers cannot let him get a taste of blood in his mouth and get into the lane to shoot high percentage shots.
Keep double-teaming Vince Carter. The Cavs need to keep several men on the best scorer on a potent team. Larry Hughes has done well by himself versus Jason Kidd so far, holding Kidd to just 24 points in the first two games. Trapping Kidd and cramping Carter will stop the offensive flow that the Nets enjoyed in game 2.
Hold the paint presence on offense. LeBron has done a good job so far this series scoring inside. James, Gooden, and Ilgauskas cannot relinquish their command of the key.
Hughes must slash and drive rather than take 20 foot jumpers. Come on. It seems like almost ever Cavs scoreline ends with "Hughes 4-15, 12 points." That's not his best basketball. Larry's not a jumpshooter by nature. He'd be a devastating point guard if he would drive, drawing defenders, and then kick the ball back out to a waiting Ilgauskas in the post or Pavlovic behind the arc.
Questions? Comments? Contact me at mtruax@gmail.com
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